We track five linked economic signals to measure whether AI-driven productivity gains are translating into broad prosperity — or hollowing out the economy from the inside.
The Displacement Index tracks a specific economic hypothesis: that rapid AI capability improvement could trigger a chain reaction through white-collar labor markets, consumer spending, credit markets, and housing.
Each chain link is scored using z-scores against 5-year historical distributions. A reading above 0.5σ is elevated, above 1.0σ is warning, above 2.0σ is critical. The composite index averages all five links on a 0–100 scale.
All data sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Credit spreads update daily; employment and spending indicators update monthly; delinquency data updates quarterly.
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